Macro Minutes: US & European Politics in 2025

In this month’s Macro Minutes video, Fisher Investments Capital Markets Team Leader Charles Dornbush analyzes the key political drivers in the US and Europe that we expect to influence markets in 2025.

Key Points

• Inaugural years carry more political risk. When inaugural years are positive though, they tend to be very positive and we think the balance of risks point to a strong year.
• Tariff analysis often overestimates economic impact and underestimates mitigating factors, such as currency movements, rerouting trade, and company adaptations.
• Falling political uncertainty in Europe could lead to upside surprise, and help close the wide gap between reality and expectations for European equities.