Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—June 24 - June 28

In the US, May new home sales fell 11.3% m/m, missing forecasts. The third estimate of Q1 2024 GDP was 1.4% annualized, slightly higher than the second estimate of 1.3%. Preliminary May durable goods orders rose 0.1% m/m. The May personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index—the US Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation—rose 2.6% y/y and remained flat m/m—in line with expectations.

In the UK, the second estimate of Q1 2024 GDP grew 0.7% q/q and 0.3% y/y, both higher than initial estimates. Q1 2024 imports and exports fell 2.7% q/q and 1.0% q/q, respectively. In the eurozone, May money supply (M3) increased 1.6% y/y—slightly higher than expected.

In Japan, preliminary May industrial production increased 2.8% m/m and 0.3% y/y, respectively. Preliminary May retail sales rose 1.7% m/m and 3.0% y/y. Unemployment remained at 2.6%. May imports and exports rose 9.5% y/y and 13.5% y/y, respectively—both in line with estimates. In China, the June NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remained at 49.5 while the Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.5 (both focused on large, state-owned firms). Readings above 50 indicate expansion.

The Week Ahead:

The US, eurozone, UK, Japan and China release final June PMIs. The UK reports May money supply (M4) and June inflation data. The eurozone reports May retail sales, the May unemployment rate, and June inflation data. The US reports June nonfarm payrolls and the June unemployment rate. The UK holds its 2024 general election on July 4.

Tip of the Week:

US financial markets and our offices will be closed on Thursday, July 4 in observance of Independence Day. We will resume standard business hours on Friday, July 5.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.