Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—September 2 - September 6

In the US, the final August S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was revised down to 47.9 while the Services PMI was revised up to 55.7. Readings over 50 indicate expansion. Manufacturing’s contractionary reading stirred recession fears, but manufacturing isn’t the US economy’s lifeblood. Manufacturing woes over the last two years didn’t derail the economy or stock market, so we don’t think it is a massive warning sign now. For more, please see our 9/3/2024 commentary, ‘Weak’ US Manufacturing Data Aren’t New News.” In the August jobs report, nonfarm payrolls rose by 142,000—stronger than July’s 89,000 but short of expectations for 160,000. The August unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, in line with expectations. For more, please see our 9/6/2024 article, “ A Noticeable Warming on August’s Jobs Report.”

In the UK, the final August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged from the initial estimate of 52.5, while the final Services PMI was revised up to 53.7. In the eurozone, the third estimate of Q2 2024 GDP showed 0.2% q/q and 0.6% y/y growth. The final August HCOB Manufacturing PMI was revised up to 45.8 and the final August Services PMI was revised down to 52.9. July retail sales rose 0.1% m/m but fell 0.1% y/y.

In Japan, the final Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI was revised up to 49.8, while the Services PMI remained unchanged at 53.7. In China, the August Caixin Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 50.4 and 51.6, respectively.

The Week Ahead:

The US reports August inflation data. The UK, eurozone and Japan release July industrial production. Japan announces the second estimate of Q2 2024 GDP. China reports August trade data, industrial production, retail sales, money supply, loan growth, and the unemployment rate.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.