Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—March 3 - March 7

In the US, February nonfarm payrolls increased by 151,000, lower than expectations. The February unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%, higher than anticipated. Final February S&P Global Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) were 52.7 and 51.0, respectively, both above expectations. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. February’s Manufacturing PMI depressed Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, prematurely. For more, please see our 03/05/2025 commentary “GDPNow Still Looks Backward”.

In the UK, January money supply (M4) increased 1.3% m/m, higher than forecasts. The final February S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 46.9 and 51.0, respectively.

In the eurozone, January retail sales fell 0.3% m/m, but rose 1.5% y/y. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.2% in January, below consensus forecasts. February consumer inflation increased 2.4% y/y, above estimates. February core consumer inflation (which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) increased 2.6% y/y above expectations. The final February HCOB Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 47.6 and 50.6, respectively. The third estimate of Q4 2024 GDP growth was 0.2% q/q, revised down from 0.4% and 1.2% y/y, revised up from 1.0%. The European Central Bank lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.65%. 

In Japan, the final February Jibun Bank Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 49.0 and 53.7, respectively. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 2.5% in January, above consensus forecasts. In China, the Caixin Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 50.8 and 51.4, respectively, both higher than estimates. February imports and exports fell 8.4% y/y and rose 2.3% y/y, respectively.

The Week Ahead

The US reports February consumer prices. The UK reports January GDP and industrial production, while the eurozone reports January industrial production. Japan reports its final estimate of Q4 2024 GDP. China releases February money supply (M2) and loan growth.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.