Fisher Investments' "Three Things You Need to Know" Feb 3rd

Transcript

Paige Tyson:

Hello, and welcome to 3 Things You Need to Know This Week, our regular series designed to help you sift through the noise across financial media and understand what really matters for markets.

And now, here are three things you need to know this week.

First, an update on our 2025 outlook.

At the beginning of the year, we saw a wide range of potential outcomes for stocks this year, but in recent weeks, the picture has become clearer. Based on our analysis, we anticipate another strong year of returns ahead. Except this time, we think European and value stocks should lead the way.

Now, while US stocks will likely do just fine, US investors are still fairly optimistic and already appreciate the economy is in a good shape. In Europe, though, investors are far from it, despite an economy that's holding up just fine. But that pessimism creates an opportunity. When expectations are low, there is more room for upside. We may already be seeing this trend start to take shape. Since December, European stocks outpaced US and global stocks. It hasn't made a lot of headlines, but this kind of quiet, overlooked rally usually has staying power, in our experience.

Next up, the US January jobs report.

The US releases its January jobs report this Friday, and significant changes— good or bad—could grab headlines. But don't let short-term market reactions distract you. Remember December? That jobs report blew past expectations and headlines linked it to worries about the Fed holding off on rate cuts. Stocks dipped that day, and many claimed it was a "rational" reaction. But daily market swings like that are just normal short-term volatility. Jobs numbers just don't tell us much about what's ahead. They're more of a look back, showing decisions businesses made months earlier. It's useful context, but it doesn't predict where the economy or markets are heading.

Finally, tax season.

It's February, so you'll probably notice a series of tax documents starting to roll in. Taxes can feel overwhelming, but starting preparations—like organizing important tax documents early—can make it easier. If you owe money, getting ahead of it by starting now gives you time to budget and avoid a last-minute scramble. No stress, no surprises. On the other hand, if you're expecting a refund, filing early means you get that money in your account sooner. Plus, as a bonus, you get to avoid the April rush. If you can, consider tackling those taxes now. You'll thank yourself when April rolls around.

And that's all for this episode of 3 Things You Need to Know This Week.

For more of our thoughts on markets, check out This Week in Review, released every Friday. You can also visit fisherinvestments.com. Thanks for tuning in and don't forget to subscribe! See you next week.