Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—March 24 - March 28

In the US, preliminary durable goods orders rose 0.9% m/m in February, above expectations. The February personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index—the US Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation—rose 0.3% m/m and 2.5% y/y, both in line with estimates. New home sales rose 1.8% m/m in February, higher than estimates. March flash S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was 49.8, below expectations, while the flash Services PMI was 54.3, higher than expected (readings above 50 indicate expansion). The third estimate of Q4 2024 GDP showed 2.4% annualized growth, slightly revised up from the previous estimate of 2.3%. Fears centered on tariffs potentially driving inflation and slowing growth may be overblown. Tariffs impact a small portion of the economy, and inflation remains tied to monetary supply, which is stable. Additionally, GDP projections, even at their weakest, suggest continued economic expansion, not contraction. For more, please see our 3/27/25 commentary, “Exploring Stagflation Fears, Then and Now”.

In the UK, February headline consumer inflation increased 0.4% m/m and 2.8% y/y, both below estimates. February core consumer inflation (which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) increased 0.4% m/m and 3.5% y/y, both below expectations. February retail sales grew 1.0 % m/m and 2.2% y/y, higher than estimates. The March flash S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 44.6, below estimates, while Services PMI was 53.2, above estimates. The second estimate of Q4 2024 GDP growth was 0.1 q/q, in line with the previous estimate, and 1.5 y/y, revised up from the previous estimate of 1.4%.

In the eurozone, February money supply (M3) increased 4.0% y/y, higher than forecasts. The March flash HCOB Manufacturing PMI beat expectations at 48.7 while the Services PMI was 50.4—below forecast.

In Japan, February imports fell 0.7% y/y, below consensus forecasts, and exports rose 11.4% y/y, above consensus forecasts.

The Week Ahead:

The US, UK, eurozone, Japan and China release March final purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs). The US reports March unemployment, while the eurozone and Japan report February unemployment. The US releases March nonfarm payrolls and final February durable goods orders. The UK releases February Money Supply (M4). The eurozone releases March consumer inflation. Japan reports February retail sales.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.