Daily Commentary

MarketMinder’s View: China’s October exports rose 12.7% y/y, well above FactSet’s estimate of 5.9% and the 11^th positive reading in the past year. The article points out exports’ strength this year may be tied partially to the prospect of a “trade war” launched under a potential Donald Trump presidency, with exporters trying to front-run new tariffs. Not only would that pull demand forward, but people worry the tariffs themselves will roil commerce. While new tariffs are possible, we urge investors to wait for action rather than engage in fruitless speculation—and remember tariffs from Trump’s first presidency (which extended and broadened under the Biden administration) weren’t the massive negative many feared. Furthermore, they aren’t assured to happen, as Trump used some of his tariff rhetoric as a means to get other parties to the bargaining table on trade deals. Beyond tariff talk, here is some more helpful perspective on China’s latest export figures: “October has historically been a weaker month for exports before a final rush in the last two months of the year. The rise was off a weak base in the same period a year earlier, when shipments abroad dropped almost 7%. Even so, the figures outdid expectations. Exports to the US rose 8.1%, the most in three months. Shipments to most markets climbed, with double-digit increases to Asean, the European Union, South Africa and Brazil. Shipments to Russia jumped almost 27%, the fastest growth this year.” A weak base may have flattered the numbers, but overall, external demand looks solid. For global investors, that factoid matters most, in our view.

MarketMinder’s View: According to the Labor Department, initial jobless claims rose by 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 221,000 for the week ending November 2, in line with economists’ estimates. As the analysis here points out, this weekly data series reinforces the common view that hurricanes and labor stoppages weighed on employment recently. “Employment growth slowed sharply last month, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by only 12,000 jobs, the fewest since December 2020. That aligned with a jump in claims in early October as Hurricane Helene disrupted economic activity in the U.S. Southeast region. Applications stayed elevated through the middle of last month after Hurricane Milton lashed Florida.” As for strikes at a global aerospace manufacturer, “The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, rose 39,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.892 million during the week ending Oct. 26, the claims report showed. The Boeing-related furloughs are mostly keeping the so-called continuing claims elevated.” (Which reminds us, MarketMinder doesn’t make individual security recommendations, and we bring you this for the broad theme only.) With hurricane-related disruptions fading and striking workers agreeing to a new contract, November will likely show a big pickup in jobs growth—a one-off boost after a one-off blah. For investors, keep an eye on the broad reaction to those data, which may reveal some hints about sentiment. For more, see this week’s commentary, “No October Surprise in the Jobs Report.”

MarketMinder’s View: As always, MarketMinder is nonpartisan and prefers no political party or politician over another. Our focus is on the election’s market or personal finance impact only. In that vein, this roundup asks several financial experts how Tuesday’s vote may affect retirement savings, with topics ranging from what to do if you are unhappy about the results (one suggestion is to log off social media, which is always good advice) to counsel on whether you should change your strategy based on who wins (the quick answer: no). There are plenty of tidbits of timeless investing wisdom here, but a broader theme we would like to highlight: Don’t overrate the White House’s influence over the market. Yes, the president’s bully pulpit matters, especially on political and sociological topics. But economically, the executive branch’s powers are limited. Personalities dominate headlines, but stocks care most about policy—and even though the Republicans look poised to pick up both chambers of Congress with narrow margins, that doesn’t mean major legislation is a given. Politics matter, but they are just one factor among many that affect stock prices. For more, see our commentary, “Our View of America’s Election and Markets.”