Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—May 13 - May 17

In the US, April retail sales were flat m/m and rose 3.0% y/y. April industrial production was flat m/m and decreased 0.4% y/y. Manufacturing production fell 0.3% m/m and 0.5% y/y. Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation decelerated to 0.3% m/m and 3.4% y/y in April. Meanwhile, core CPI inflation (which excludes food and energy) also decelerated to 0.3% m/m and 3.6% y/y. Just as we didn’t see anything earthshattering in March’s small inflation acceleration, we don’t see much of note in April’s slight easing. For more, please see our 5/15/2024 commentary “ CPI’s Wobbles Are Still Noise.”

In the eurozone, the second estimate of Q1 2024 GDP continued to show 0.3% q/q and 0.4% y/y growth. March industrial production rose 0.6% m/m and fell 1.0% y/y, both better than forecast. The final estimate of April headline consumer inflation remained 2.4% y/y. In the UK, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% in the three months ending March 2024—in line with forecasts.

In Japan, the first estimate of Q1 2024 GDP showed a 0.5% q/q and 0.2% y/y contraction—both disappointing expectations. Preliminary April money supply (M2) expanded 2.2% y/y. March industrial production increased 4.4% m/m but decreased 6.2% y/y. In China, April retail sales rose 2.3% y/y while industrial production grew 6.7% y/y. April money supply (M2) increased 7.2% y/y—lower than consensus forecasts. Outstanding yuan loan growth decelerated to 9.6% y/y in April. The April unemployment rate decreased to 5.0%.

The Week Ahead:

The US, UK, eurozone and Japan report flash May purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs). The US releases April durable goods orders and new home sales. The UK announces April inflation and retail sales figures. Japan reports April inflation and trade data.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.