Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—November 4 - November 8

In the US, the final October S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was revised lower to 55.0. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. September durable goods order fell 0.7% m/m. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.50%-4.75%. Many view rate cuts as crucial for markets, but we believe this overstates central banks’ influence on the economy and the significance of incremental policy decisions. For more, please see our 11/7/2024 commentary, “On Thursday’s Twin Transatlantic Rate Cuts”.

In the UK, the final October S&P Global Services PMI was revised higher to 52.0. The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75%. In the eurozone, the final October HCOB Manufacturing and Services PMIs were revised higher to 46.0 and 51.6, respectively. September retail sales grew 0.5% m/m and 2.9% y/y.

In Japan, final October Jibun Bank Services PMI was revised lower to 49.7. In China, the final October Caixin Services PMI was 52.0. October imports fell 2.3% y/y, while exports rose 12.7% y/y. October consumer inflation decreased 0.3% m/m and increased 0.3% y/y. October money supply (M2) increased 7.5%.

The Week Ahead:

The UK and Japan release their first estimates of Q3 2024 GDP, while the eurozone reports its second estimate. The US releases October consumer inflation and October industrial and manufacturing production data. The UK and eurozone report September industrial production. The UK reports September manufacturing production. The US and China report October retail sales, while Japan reports September retail sales.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.