Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—April 8 - April 12

In the US, March headline consumer price inflation accelerated to 3.5% y/y—higher than expectations for 3.4%. March core consumer prices (which excludes food and energy) rose 3.8% y/y—also slightly above forecasts. We don’t see much cause for alarm in March’s inflation reading. Consumer price inflation has been rangebound since last summer and prior jumps didn’t presage sustained increases. While March’s inflation acceleration allegedly ended hopes for the Fed to cut interest rates in June, stocks don’t depend on whether the Fed slashes interest rates. For more, see our 4/10/2024 commentary, “Into Perspective: March’s Inflation Uptick.”

In the UK, February industrial production rose 1.1% m/m and 1.4% y/y, exceeding forecasts. Meanwhile, manufacturing production increased 1.2% m/m and 2.7% y/y, also exceeding estimates. February GDP grew 0.1% m/m, matching expectations and extending the nascent GDP recovery that started in January. In the eurozone, the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged.

 In Japan, March bank lending increased 3.2% y/y. Preliminary March money supply (M2) grew 2.5% y/y, above expectations. In China, March consumer prices fell 1.0% m/m but rose 0.1% y/y. Outstanding yuan loan growth increased 9.6% y/y in March. March exports and imports fell 7.5% y/y and 1.9% y/y, respectively. Money supply (M2) grew 8.3% y/y in March, less than forecast.

The Week Ahead

The US, UK and China report March retail sales. The UK, eurozone and Japan release March inflation figures. China announces Q1 2024 GDP. The US, eurozone and China release March industrial production. Japan reports March trade figures.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.