Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—November 13 – November 17

In the US, October retail sales fell 0.1% m/m, below forecasts, but rose 2.5% y/y, beating expectations. October manufacturing production contracted 0.7% m/m and 1.7% y/y, while industrial production contracted 0.6% m/m and 0.7% y/y, respectively. October consumer prices remained unchanged m/m and increased 3.2% y/y—both below market expectations. Core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.2% m/m and 4.0% y/y. Headlines credit last Tuesday’s report on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for markets’ upward movement, though in our view, this report isn’t predictive for stocks. Markets are forward-looking and have been pre-pricing inflation improvement since the bull market began over a year ago, easing pressure on sentiment. For more, please see our 11/14/2023 commentary “US CPI: Shelter Suggests More Cooling Ahead.”

In the eurozone, October consumer prices increased 2.9% y/y, while October core consumer prices rose 4.2% y/y, in line with preliminary estimates. The second estimate of Q3 2023 GDP showed -0.1% q/q contraction and 0.1% y/y growth—both in line with the first estimates. September industrial production fell 1.1% m/m and 6.9% y/y, both worse than forecast. In the UK, October consumer prices were flat m/m and increased 4.6% y/y, both below expectations. October core consumer prices rose 0.3% m/m and 5.7% y/y, both slightly lower than expected. October retail sales fell 0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y. Unemployment in the three months ending in September remained unchanged at 4.2%.

In Japan, the first estimate of Q3 2023 GDP showed a contraction of 0.5% q/q and 2.1% y/y, both below expectations. Preliminary October imports and exports fell 12.5% y/y and rose 1.6% y/y, respectively. Final September industrial production rose 0.5% m/m but fell 4.4% y/y—both exceeding forecasts. September retail sales grew 0.4% m/m 6.2% y/y. In China, October retail sales rose 7.6% y/y while industrial production grew 4.6% y/y. October money supply (M2) increased 10.3% y/y. Loan growth increased 10.9% y/y in October.

The Week Ahead

The US, UK, the eurozone and Japan report Flash November manufacturing and services PMIs. US releases October durable goods orders and new home sales, as well as unemployment data for the week ending November 11^th. Japan reports October consumer prices.

Tip of the Week

Fisher Investments’ offices and US markets will be closed on Thursday, November 23 in observance of Thanksgiving. Our offices will reopen Friday, November 24.

ⁱSource for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.