Fisher Investments' "Three Things You Need to Know" Nov. 25th

Transcript

Mackenzie Whitaker: Hello and welcome to Fisher Investments' 3 Things You Need to Know This Week, a new weekly segment designed to help investors worldwide sift through the noise across financial media and understand what really matters for markets. My name is Mackenzie Whitaker. I'm a Group Vice President here at Fisher Investments, and here are the three things you need to know this week. First up, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes. Tomorrow, the Fed releases notes from its November meeting that summarize what Fed officials discussed about inflation, interest rates and their potential policy direction. Fed meeting minutes always spark media speculation about what Fed officials might do next, but at Fisher Investments, we believe guessing the Fed's next move, based on conversation notes isn't prudent or necessary for long-term investors. Often there's a gap between what central bankers say and what they do. While we keep an eye on their decisions and consider potential risks, history shows it's better to wait for actual announcements and weigh their effects over time rather than worry about predictions. Next, U.S. inflation. On Wednesday, we'll see October's reading of the Fed's preferred inflation measure— the personal consumption expenditures price index, also known as PCE. PCE inflation is expected to modestly accelerate from September's reading. But inflation has been trending lower globally and is getting closer and closer to the Fed's target. While people might focus on the latest numbers, one month's report doesn't change the broader trend. Concerns are circulating that potential new U.S. government policies, such as tariffs or tax cuts, may possibly push prices higher. However, it's too soon to know what will actually happen, and making investment decisions based on possibilities over probability can be risky, especially for long-term investors. For now, inflation seems stable and isn't a major concern for markets based on the data we've seen. Finally, the holiday shopping season, which officially kicks off this week with Thanksgiving in the U.S. and Black Friday. You'll likely see lots of headlines about retail sales, but Black Friday sales aren't the economic barometer many headlines make them out to be. While this day is increasingly global and a big deal for some businesses, its significance is often overstated. Holiday shopping often spreads across November and December, and in developed countries like the U.S., most spending goes toward services, not products. Taken together, we'd caution against making big conclusions about the economy based on Black Friday sales. That's all for this episode of 3 Things You Need to Know This Week. For more insights, catch our other series This Week in Review, released every Friday or visit FisherInvestments.com. Thanks for joining and don't forget to subscribe!