Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—April 14 - April 18

In the US, March industrial production decreased 0.3% m/m and 1.3% y/y above forecasts. March imports fell 0.1% m/m, below consensus forecasts, while exports were 0.0% m/m, above consensus forecasts. March retail sales grew 1.4% m/m and 4.6% y/y, higher than consensus estimates. For the past two weeks, when assessing the landscape of tariffs and volatility, we have counseled readers that fear is in the marketplace—a shorthand way of saying markets reflect and have been pricing in deep tariff pessimism. When sentiment is this low, things even going bad—but less bad than feared—can bring big, bullish relief. For more, please see our 4/16/2025 commentary, “The Sentiment Reset We’ve Seen.”

In the UK, March consumer inflation increased 0.3% m/m and 2.6% y/y, both below estimates. March core consumer inflation (which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) increased 0.5% m/m and 3.4% y/y, both above expectations. February GDP grew 0.5% m/m, more than expected. While some worry the UK’s near-term economic prospects look bleak due to the trade conflict, we think this fear is overwrought. For more, please see our 4/15/2025 commentary, “UK GDP’s February in Perspective.” In the eurozone, February industrial production increased 1.1% m/m and 1.2% y/y, surpassing forecasts. March final core consumer inflation (which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) increased 2.4% y/y. The European Central Bank reduced its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points.

In Japan, March consumer inflation increased 0.3% m/m and 3.6% y/y. March core-core consumer inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) increased 2.9% y/y. March imports and exports rose 2.0% y/y and 3.9% y/y, respectively, both below consensus forecasts. In China, March retail sales grew 5.9% y/y, higher than consensus estimates. March industrial production increased 7.7% y/y, surpassing forecasts. The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.2% in March, less than expected.

The Week Ahead:

The US, UK, eurozone and Japan release preliminary purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs). The US reports preliminary durable goods orders. The UK releases retail sales. Japan reports imports and exports.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.