Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—December 2 - December 6

In the US, October durable goods orders rose 0.3% m/m, surpassing expectations. November nonfarm payrolls increased by 227,000 and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%. Final November S&P Global Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) were 49.7 and 56.1, respectively. Readings over 50 indicate expansion. While manufacturing remained below 50—indicating contraction—services represent the vast majority of US economic activity and remains expansionary. For more, please see our 12/4/2024 commentary, “Do Surveys Say Global Growth Is Stalling?.”

In the UK, the final November S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 48.0 and 50.8, respectively. In the eurozone, the final November HCOB Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 45.2 and 49.5, respectively. October retail sales fell 0.5% m/m, but rose 1.9% y/y. Unemployment in October remained unchanged at 6.3%—in line with expectations. The third estimate of Q3 2024 GDP grew 0.4% q/q and 0.9% y/y.

In Japan, the final November Jibun Bank Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 49.0 and 50.5, respectively. In China, the final November Caixin Manufacturing and Services PMIs were both 51.5.

The Week Ahead

The US and China release November consumer inflation data. The UK, eurozone and Japan report October industrial production. The UK reports October GDP and manufacturing production. Japan and China release November loan growth. Japan reports its second estimate of Q3 2024 GDP. China releases November money supply (M2) and trade data. The European Central Bank meets to set monetary policy.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.