Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—November 11 - November 15

In the US, October industrial production decreased 0.3% both m/m and y/y. Manufacturing production was down 0.5% m/m and down 0.3% y/y. Core consumer prices (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.3% m/m (in line with expectations) and 3.3% y/y while consumer prices grew 0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y. October retail sales grew 0.4% m/m and 2.8% y/y. With consumer inflation ticking up in October, headlines argued inflation isn’t back to normal and the Fed must tread lightly with rate cuts. But compared to the Consumer Price Index’s long history, inflation looks stunningly normal. For more, please read our commentary “Is US Inflation Normal? You Decide.”

In the UK, preliminary Q3 2024 GDP growth rose 0.1% q/q, the smallest growth in three quarters, and rose 1% y/y, the strongest growth in seven quarters. September industrial production fell 0.5% m/m and fell 1.8% y/y. September GDP fell 0.1% m/m, the first decline in five months, and rose 1% y/y, slightly below forecasts. September unemployment rose to 4.3%. September manufacturing production dropped 1.0% m/m and dropped 0.7% y/y. Flash Q3 2024 imports decreased 1.5% q/q, while exports decreased 0.2% q/q. In the eurozone, the second estimate of Q3 2024 GDP growth was 0.4% q/q and 0.9% y/y. September industrial production fell 2.0% m/m and 2.8% y/y.

In Japan, preliminary Q3 2024 GDP growth increased 0.2% q/q, aligning with market forecasts, and expanded by 0.9% on an annualized basis. September industrial production rose 1.6% m/m and fell 2.6% y/y. October bank lending rose 2.7% y/y. In China, October loan growth increased 8.0% y/y while money supply (M2) grew 7.5% y/y. October industrial production rose 5.3% y/y and retail sales rose 4.8% y/y. October unemployment increased to 5%.

The Week Ahead:

US, UK eurozone and Japan release flash November manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMI). Japan reports October trade data and October consumer inflation. Eurozone reports October consumer inflation. The UK reports October retail sales.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.