Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—October 14 - October 18

In the US, September industrial production fell 0.3% m/m and 0.6% y/y, below forecasts. September manufacturing production fell 0.4% m/m and 0.5% y/y. September retail sales increased 0.4% m/m and 1.7% y/y, beating expectations. Both reports offer further evidence the US economy is getting back to normal after years of COVID-related disruptions, underscoring that this bull market’s economic fundamentals are faring fine. For more, please see our 10/18/2024 commentary, “September’s ‘Stuff’ Economy and Sentiment.”

In the UK, September consumer prices rose 1.7% y/y, while core consumer prices (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose 3.2% y/y. September retail sales rose 0.3% m/m and 3.9% y/y—both exceeding forecasts. August unemployment fell to 4.0% from June to August 2024, slightly below estimates. In the eurozone, September consumer prices rose 1.7% y/y, while core consumer prices (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rose 2.7% y/y, in line with expectations. August industrial production rose 1.8% m/m and 0.1% y/y—both above expectations. The European Central Bank lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.25%.

In Japan, September consumer prices rose 2.5% y/y, while core-core consumer prices (excluding food and energy) rose 2.1% y/y. August industrial production decreased 3.3% m/m and 4.9% y/y. Preliminary September exports fell 1.7% y/y, while imports rose 2.1% y/y. In China, Q3 GDP grew 0.9% q/q and 4.6% y/y. September retail sales increased 3.2% y/y, above estimates. September imports and exports rose 0.3% m/m and 2.4% m/m, respectively. September money supply (M2) increased 6.8% y/y. September loan growth rose 8.1% y/y. The September unemployment rate decreased slightly to 5.1%.

The Week Ahead:

The US, UK, the eurozone and Japan release flash October manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs). The US reports preliminary September durable goods orders. The eurozone releases September money supply (M3) data.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.