Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—October 21 - October 25

In the US, the October flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) were 47.8 and 55.3, respectively. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. Preliminary September durable goods orders fell 0.8% m/m, less than expected. Notably, weakness in the aerospace industry particularly weighed on the headline figure. When excluding the transportation equipment category, durable goods orders rose 0.4% m/m in September.

In the UK, the October flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 50.3 and 51.8, respectively. In the eurozone, the October HCOB flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 45.9 and 51.2, respectively. September money supply (M3) increased 3.2% y/y, surpassing estimates.

In Japan, the October flash Jibun Bank Manufacturing and Services PMIs were 49.0 and 49.3, respectively. On Sunday, Japan’s current coalition government lost its legislative majority in a snap election—an outcome that raises near-term political uncertainty. We will monitor developments closely, but the election didn’t result in a clear winner, likely limiting the power of any government that might emerge from coalition negotiations.  

The Week Ahead

The US, UK and Japan report final October manufacturing PMIs. The US and eurozone release their first estimates of Q3 2024 GDP. The US releases October nonfarm payrolls and unemployment data. The UK announces September money supply (M4) data. The eurozone reports October inflation. The eurozone and Japan release September unemployment figures. Japan announces September trade data, preliminary industrial production and preliminary retail sales. The Bank of Japan meets to set monetary policy.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.