Fisher Investments Reviews: Last Week in Markets—October 28 - November 1

In the US, the October S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was 48.5. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. October nonfarm payrolls increased 12,000, below forecasts. The October unemployment remained unchanged at 4.1%. The first estimate of Q3 2024 GDP showed 2.8% annualized growth. Though it is a slight slowdown from Q2’s 3.0% and missed analysts’ estimates, trends powering growth in recent quarters largely continue and stocks are rightly cheering a return to economic normalcy. For more, please see our 10/30/2024 commentary, “America’s Halloween-Eve GDP Delivers Few Scares.”

In the UK, the October S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 49.9. September money supply (M4) rose 0.6% m/m. In the eurozone, the first estimate of Q3 2024 GDP growth was 0.4% q/q and 0.9% y/y, both surpassing estimates. October preliminary consumer inflation accelerated 2.0% y/y, while preliminary core consumer inflation (which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) accelerated 2.7% y/y. The September unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.3%, slightly below consensus forecasts.

In Japan, the October Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI was 49.2. September preliminary industrial production rose 1.4% m/m but fell 2.8% y/y. The September unemployment rate fell to 2.4%. September retail sales fell 2.3% m/m and rose 0.5% y/y. September imports rose 2.1% y/y, while exports fell 1.7% y/y. The Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged at 0.25%—in line with expectations. In China, the October NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 while the Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2. (The NBS indexes are focused on large, state-owned firms.) The October Caixin Manufacturing PMI was 50.3.

The Week Ahead

The US, UK, eurozone, Japan and China release final October Services PMIs. The US reports September durable goods orders. The eurozone releases its final October Manufacturing PMI and September retail sales. China reports October consumer inflation, loan growth, money supply and trade data. The Bank of England meets to set monetary policy.

Source for all data cited is FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. No assurances are made we will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Global equities are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks in 23 developed countries and is presented net of dividend withholding taxes and uses the maximum rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A risk of loss is involved with investments in stock markets.