Fisher Investments' "Three Things You Need to Know" Dec. 2nd

Transcript

Ben Thistlethwaite:
Hello and welcome to Fisher Investments’ “Three Things You Need to Know This Week”—a new weekly segment designed to help investors worldwide sift through the noise across financial media and understand what really matters for markets.

And here are the three things you need to know this week.

First, what does December mean for stocks?

December is here, and with it comes a big question: how do stocks usually behave this time of year?
Historically, December has been a solid month for US stocks . But does that mean we’re guaranteed to see stocks move up again this year? Not exactly. Trends like this aren’t crystal balls. That said, there are reasons for investors to feel optimistic. For example, things like falling political uncertainty in the US and strong corporate earnings look like solid supports for stocks as we head toward the end of the year. And history shows that after a US election, stocks tend to do well no matter who wins—markets just like knowing who’s in charge.

Next, record market highs.

You may have noticed US and global stocks hit record highs in recent weeks. For some investors, that raises a red flag and they worry it means the market could take a nosedive soon. In our view, all-time highs aren’t a reason to panic. Time and time again, history demonstrates that record highs are just part of any long-term market cycle. For example, if you invest when stocks are at a record high, your future returns—whether you look 3 months or 3 years ahead—are usually about the same as if you’d invested on any regular day. Market ups and downs happen during every bull market, and markets rise about two thirds of the time . New record highs aren’t predictive of future market movement and in our view, shouldn’t influence an investor’s decision making. To learn more about our views on new market highs, you can hear more from our founder, Executive Chairman and Co-Chief Investment Officer, Ken Fisher by clicking the URL in the description of this video.

Finally, the US job market.

This Friday, we get a November US jobs report covering things like non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate. Investor reactions to job reports have been somewhat fickle this year. Weak reports have sparked recession worries, while strong ones have brought inflation concerns. That can be confusing, but here’s the key takeaway—it’s not helpful to put too much weight on any single month’s numbers. Yes, the job market has cooled off compared to 2021 and 2022, but that’s more of a return to normal than a warning sign. Monthly hiring has slowed but stayed positive, and the recent rise in unemployment is largely due to more people entering the job market—not a lack of jobs. Plus, job data tends to lag behind what’s already happening in the economy, so it’s not a great tool for predicting where stocks are headed next.

That’s all for this episode of “Three Things You Need to Know This Week.” For more insights, catch our “This Week in Review” every Friday or visit FisherInvestments.com,, and don’t forget to subscribe. Thanks for joining us!